Will solar-grade polysilicon demand outpace historical precedent?

We estimate that median future 10-year growth rates for Cu, solar-grade polysilicon, Ga, In, Se, Ag, and Te demand will exceed their respective average historical (1946–2018) 10-year growth (Table S1). In particular, growth in solar-grade polysilicon, Ga, In, and Te demand might considerably outpace historical precedent.

How do you calculate material demand for new power generation infrastructure?

Annual material demand for new power generation infrastructure was calculated by multiplying the total new capacity installed that year (new capacity added + replaced capacity) by the material intensities per unit capacity for each generation technology.

How can we project future power generation capacity by technology type?

To project future power generation capacity by technology type, we leveraged scenarios from the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer. 53,54,55 From this database, we curated a list of 75 models and scenarios for which to calculate future electricity-sector material demand and material-associated emissions, based on several criteria.

How will power sector demand change over the next decade?

For some materials (Dy, Nd, solar-grade polysilicon, or Te), annual power sector demand over coming decades will considerably exceed current global production rates, requiring large increases in production (Table 1).

How much will solar generation increase between 2020 & 2050?

This scenario sees an approximately 23-fold increase in solar generation and an 8-fold increase in wind generation between 2020 and 2050, allowing for good assessment of the importance of assumptions around wind and solar technologies and lifetimes in particular.

Do thin-film solar farms need a coal infrastructure?

Based on Bödeker et al., 58 we further assumed that aluminum demand per unit capacity in thin-film solar farms was 81% that of conventional PV facilities. Literature on materials demand for biomass electricity generation was limited, and so values for coal infrastructure were employed in the case of Cu, Ni, and Mn.